forecasting Tag

CNBC reports that mortgage refi’s hit an 18-year low this month. I think it is safe to say that the end of the 35-year refinancing bubble is officially over, save for even more extreme Central Bank action during the next downturn. The ultimate implications of this event… Read More

Despite a respite in global equity prices month to date, last week saw some major breakdowns in the uber-important credit markets which likely confirms more downside to come in the current correction. Globally, it was a bloodbath in high yield with risk premiums achieving year… Read More

Understanding asymmetric points to buy and sell risk isn’t difficult if you have a common-sense market cycle framework. There are really only a few factors that need to go into one’s decision matrix as to how to position a portfolio between the risk-free –> risky asset… Read More