macro Tag

In the fourth quarter of 2018, I penned a quick note highlighting a set of conditions which had in the past been fairly consistent in providing asymmetric short opportunities in the energy complex. It turns out that note was prescient as we saw a number… Read More

This is mind-boggling. If it holds, today would be the 13th down day in a row for the S&P/LSTA US Leveraged Loan Index. Simply put, these are not the types of moves one would want to see at the beginning of a sustainable rally. Figure:… Read More

CNBC reports that mortgage refi’s hit an 18-year low this month. I think it is safe to say that the end of the 35-year refinancing bubble is officially over, save for even more extreme Central Bank action during the next downturn. The ultimate implications of this event… Read More

Despite a respite in global equity prices month to date, last week saw some major breakdowns in the uber-important credit markets which likely confirms more downside to come in the current correction. Globally, it was a bloodbath in high yield with risk premiums achieving year… Read More

Understanding asymmetric points to buy and sell risk isn’t difficult if you have a common-sense market cycle framework. There are really only a few factors that need to go into one’s decision matrix as to how to position a portfolio between the risk-free –> risky asset… Read More

Gosh. On some days it feels exactly like 2008. It’s not, of course, but everything about the current environment feels oh, so late cycle. Until this week, crude oil was the commodity sector’s saving grace. Indeed, as the largest component of the S&P GSCI Index,… Read More